国际贸易倒退之际，拿什么拯救WTO | 双语阅读
来源：财经十一人
新任WTO总干事不能是现状的维护者。不论他或者她做出的改变是多么微小，重要的是：WTO需要做出改变
Can The WTO Be Saved？ Steps For A Non-Trade Moment
国际贸易倒退之际，拿什么拯救WTO
作者：Frank Lavin
As the World Trade Organization selects a new director-general this month， the Geneva-based group will be faced with two acute challenges： There is not a great deal of support for trade， and there is even less support for the WTO．
世界贸易组织（WTO）本月选出了新任总干事。这个总部位于日内瓦的团体正面临两个严峻的挑战：一，眼下没有充足的对于贸易的支持，二，对WTO的支持就更少了。
Many reasons are offered for the lack of trade support： China’s record in support of trade norms or simply the rapid rise of China； the role of technology and automation and the erosion of job security； the shift from a manufacturing to a service economy； the fear of diminished sovereignty in a global setting； the distribution effects of trade； and now some might add Covid-19 as a metaphor for the costs of greater connectivity． For its part， the WTO is faulted for its inability to complete a trade round and faulted by the U.S． in particular for alleged bias in its appellate system．
对贸易的支持不够有很多原因：中国支持贸易规范的历史记录，或者简单地说：中国的快速崛起；科技和自动化所扮演的角色以及其所引发的一系列对于就业保障的侵蚀；经济整体正从制造型转向服务型的趋势；成员国们担心在全球化的背景下主权被削弱；贸易带来的分配效果；而现在雪上加霜的是，有些人可能把新冠疫情等同于实现贸易连接所需要付出的更高昂的代价。对于WTO而言，它被指责的更多的是无法运行自身的贸易谈判机制，而美国尤其不满其据称带有偏见的诉讼系统。
Whatever the validity of these complaints， none of them negate the central truth： Countries that engage in trade move ahead， and those that do not， stagnate． Trade rhetoric is easy， but trade policy is hard． Is an effective WTO possible？ What steps can the new director-general take to advance trade？
不论这些指控是否站得住脚，它们之中没有一个反驳了最为核心的真相：加入贸易的国家向前发展，而那些没有加入贸易的国家通常就停滞不前了。全球贸易说起来容易，但贸易政策做起来却很难。WTO能不能变得有效起来？作为新任总干事，有哪些步骤可以帮助他继续推进全球贸易呢？
The WTO and the Decline of Trade Policy
WTO和日渐衰退的贸易政策
To put it politely， the WTO is not designed for success． Unlike the World Bank or the IMF， the WTO has no weighted voting based on a member’s economic role or financial contribution． Cape Verde has the same voting power as the U.S．， China， and every other member． Unlike the U.N．， there is no Security Council， nor an executive committee． Decisions are not made by majority vote， nor even by a supermajority． They are made by “consensus．” Harmless enough sounding， but in practical terms this means unanimity among every one of the 164 members． This requirement for unanimity seems to assume an almost religious hold on decision-making， allowing the process to take precedence over goals． With no successful trade round in 25 years， the WTO has become a prisoner of its consensus requirement．
委婉地来说，WTO从设计上就无法走向成功。不像世界银行和国际货币基金组织，WTO没有设置与成员国的经济角色和财政贡献的权重所匹配的投票系统。佛得角与美国和中国以及所有其他成员国享有同等的投票权。它也不像联合国那样设置有安理会和执行委员会。决策不是通过大多数投票而来，甚至不是通过绝对多数制度而来。决策是通过“一致同意”制度才能做出的。听起来十足地无公害，但在实际情况之下，这意味着164个成员国每一位都须统一意见。这种对于统一性的追求就像是给决策制度加入了一种宗教信仰，也同时让过程凌驾在了目标之上。在25年的时间当中，WTO的贸易谈判一次都没有成功。WTO已经成为了自身同一性要求的囚徒。
Since all results–all results–have to be done by consensus， power is in the hands of outliers， those with perse or exotic goals． Minor trading states with niche agendas can grind the entire body to a halt． Negative power–the ability to obstruct or veto–exceeds positive power．
正是因为所有的结果都必须是全票通过，决策权就被交到了那些少数派，也就是那些有着不同的或者是独特的目标的国家手里。一些有着小众议程的、次要的贸易成员国可以轻易使得整个体系停止运转。负面权力—阻碍或者否决的权力—超越了正面权力。
Historically， these defects were tolerable because the U.S． and other trading nations were willing to provide the leadership to push through successful rounds． But there is little appetite for trade in the Trump administration， nor is there alternative leadership in Europe or elsewhere． Trade is unloved， unsupported， and even unwanted．
在过去，这些缺陷是在容忍限度内的，因为美国和其他国家曾经愿意领导整个谈判回合以使其达到成功。但是如今特朗普政府对于贸易没有需求，而欧洲或者其他地区也没有充足的领导意愿和能力。现在的贸易是失宠的，多余的，且不被支持的。
WTO provides the architecture， but not the vision or mechanism． To move ahead on trade， some changes are needed． The new WTO chief cannot be a steward of the status quo but must identify initiatives that will be significant enough to be economically consequential yet will not fall victim to trade posturing． It doesn’t matter if he or she makes small moves． But move．
WTO为贸易提供了结构基础，但没有提供愿景和机制。为了继续推进贸易向前发展，一些改变是必要的。新任WTO总干事不能是现状的维护者，他应该识别出有足够经济影响力而不是摆贸易花架子的政策倡议。不论他或者她做出的改变是多么微小，重要的是：WTO需要做出改变。
Steps to Make Trade Work Again
让贸易复活的步骤
Augment the consensus with an a la carte approach．The new WTO director-general should encourage members to adopt trade liberalization policies even in the absence of unanimity． This means that various groupings will undertake steps on a voluntary basis， each beneficial but none universal．
通过“点餐”的模式来增进统一意见制度的效率。即使是在成员国之间达不成百分百统一意见的情况下，新任WTO总干事也应该鼓励自由贸易政策的推行。这意味着不同的小组都需要在自愿的前提下采取对自身有益的，而不必是同一的步骤措施。
To the argument that a process without the traditional unanimity would undercut the WTO， the response is precisely the opposite． The WTO will not move unless it is spurred． At a minimum， recalcitrant WTO members would no longer hold veto power over initiatives， allowing the trading community to pursue an alternative， yet complementary， approach．
对于那些声称没有意见统一制度的WTO就丧失了它的灵魂的言论而言，结论刚好是相反的。WTO无法继续向前，除非有鞭策加身。最低限度，顽抗的成员国将不再拥有对倡议措施的否决权，这会帮助这个贸易社区的成员们寻找另一种有益的路径。
To those who argue that an a la carte approach would lead to a “spaghetti bowl” of different tariff rates， my response is “more spaghetti please．” Let’s take the complexity of uneven lower rates over the simplicity of consistent higher rates． Let’s take the partial victory of incomplete participation over a non-existent purity of complete participation． Let’s take the real-world success of improving trade over the theoretical success of complete harmonization．
对于那些争辩说点餐式决策制度会导致“拼盘”一样的不同的税率的言论，我的回复是“让拼盘来得更猛烈些吧”。让我们接纳更低的不统一的税率的复杂性，而不是一致性的高税率。让我们接纳成员国不全面参与的部分性胜利，而非不切实际的完全参与的纯粹性胜利。让我们选择在现实生活中推进贸易的成功，放弃完全和谐的，理论上的成功。
There are more serious arguments against an a la carte WTO， chiefly the trade persion argument． But the best way to defeat trade persion is for every country to enlist in liberalization initiatives． The trade persion concern could be offset with a trigger mechanism in which countries would sign up for a trade initiative， with the initiative to take effect only if a countries representing a given percentage of world trade， say 50%， subscribed． This would provide for the soundings and informal understandings that would allow trade to move ahead．
还有一些针对点餐式决策制度更为严肃的争辩，主要是关于贸易转移效应的声音。但是最好的消除贸易转移效应的方式就是每个国家都加入到自由贸易运动中来。关于贸易转移效应的担忧可以通过一个触发机制来抵消，在这个机制下，国家们会签署一个贸易提案，只有当参与提案的国家达到了约定好的世界贸易中的百分比，例如占比达到50%，这份提案才会生效。这会提供全球贸易向前推进的美名和非正式的理解。
Here are the examples of initiatives that could be taken on an a la carte basis：
以下是一些点餐制度下可以实施的措施：
No harm， no foul． Each WTO member should commit to zero tariffs on any items not produced in its particular market． In other words， as the United States no longer produces jeans， television sets， or light bulbs， why should it maintain tariffs on those items， currently at 5.9%， 1.9%， and 1.3%， respectively？ It is harder to liberalize sectors that have mature domestic producers． It is easier to be virtuous when virtue is cost-free．
零伤害，零违规。当某一样商品不在自己的市场中产出的时候，每一位WTO成员国都应该遵守零关税原则。换句话说，当美国不再自己生产牛仔裤，电视机或者灯泡的时候，为什么它还要在这些物品上分别征收5.9%，1.9%和1.3%的关税呢？这样做对于那样有着成熟的本国生产商的行业来说将更难实现贸易自由化。当美德是零成本的时候，人们将更容易拥有美德。
No nuisance tariffs： Tariffs should be eliminated on items where the current tariff is less than 2%． Not high enough to deter imports， but still high enough to burden trade． Some 29% of the EU’s tariff lines； 11% of Japanese tariffs； and 17% of the U.S．’ are less than 2%． Eliminating these nuisance tariffs could add $16 billion to total trade．
消除过低的关税：当当前的关税低于2%的时候，应该直接消除此类关税。这类关税过低，对于进口起不到威慑作用，但它们又足够高，高到给自由贸易加重了负担。欧盟对29%的进口商品征收不到2%的关税；日本11%；美国征收低于2%的关税的商品比例则是17%。将这些过低的关税彻底清除，可以为全球贸易总额增加160亿美元的交易额。
Mind the social costs．Remove tariffs on health products and green tech． Duties are already waived on products for the disabled and for educational， scientific， and cultural materials， but let’s include other sectors that have high social benefit （Disclosure： I serve on the board of a medtech firm．） Scrapping tariffs on these two sectors would encourage additional trade of up to $7 billion in these goods as well as collateral health and environmental benefits．
关注社会成本。世贸组织应该消除健康和绿色商品的关税。关于残疾人士，教育，科学以及文化材料相关的产品的关税已经得到了豁免，但我们还需要包含其他有社会效益的领域进入免税行列（信息披露：我在一家医疗科技公司的董事会内工作。）废除这两个领域的关税能够增进上至70亿美元的相关产品的贸易额，同时还能提升旁系的和环境的健康。
Harmonize down．Finally， each nation should commit that on every tariff line item it will be no worse than the next worse． In other words， each WTO member will agree to reduce its tariff on every line item where it is the worst （the highest tariff）． Instead of the WTO exhorting that countries move toward the best-in-class， the goal now is just that they not be worst-in-class． This rule could achieve $22 billion in additional trade．
促使成员国变得融洽。改变的最终成果应该是，每个成员国都应做出承诺，最高关税商品的关税不能比第二高的国家更高。换句话说，每个WTO成员国都须同意在自身的最高关税商品之上减低税收。这样一来，WTO就不用劝诫成员国们成为班里最好的学生，现在的目标是他们将避免成为班级里的最差生。这项规定可以促进新的220亿美元的贸易额产生。
Conclusion
结论
The approach outlined above allows the WTO to get back in forward motion through a series of mid-tier steps． While falling short of a full WTO round， these steps would nonetheless be a material addition to global trade．
上述的方法使得WTO通过中等层级的步骤重回向前迈进的轨道。尽管这些措施达不到一个完整的WTO贸易谈判回合，但他们也仍会为全球贸易带来可观的增量。
Yes， the WTO can be saved． It needs to be smart enough and nimble enough to pursue a few wins and remind its members that improvement in trade is more important than institutional rigidity． In a non-trade era， it would be useful to have the world trade body produce progress on trade．
是的，WTO可以被拯救。它需要足够智慧， 足够敏捷来谋求几次胜利，从而提醒它的成员国们，贸易的提升比起刚性的制度更为重要。在现今的贸易缺位时代，世界贸易组织对于贸易的促进作用将会是十分有益的。
原载：2020年9月7日 Forbes，翻译：杨赛
